NVIDIA
NASDAQ · NVDALargest conviction in the AI compute layer.
I bought Nvidia at 31 cents in June 2010, and I'll be honest with you: I still think Wall Street is underestimating this company's durability into 2027 and beyond. That probably sounds strange given its scale, but hear me out.
Consensus EPS estimates have climbed above $8 and continue to trend higher. My own estimate is $9 to $10. If you believe $10 EPS is achievable, Nvidia trades at less than 20× forward earnings for a company doubling profits year over year. That's not an expensive multiple for the company supplying the picks and shovels of the most important technology transition of our lifetimes.
Nvidia's trajectory tells you everything. Quarterly revenue has been growing more than 70% year over year. Data center revenue is growing even faster, with networking inside the data center accelerating at triple-digit rates. Forward guidance deliberately excludes China data center compute, which means any normalization there is pure upside.
Computing demand is growing exponentially. The agentic AI inflection point has arrived. Jensen Huang, CEO
OpenAI has committed $100 billion tied to roughly 10 gigawatts of GPU purchases, with Nvidia funding somewhere between 15% and 20% of the buildout. Broadcom, one of Nvidia's closest ecosystem partners, guided $22 billion for a recent quarter against a Street expectation of $20.5 billion, and said 2027 is when its biggest growth flows. That matters for Nvidia too.
Nvidia remains my single largest conviction in the AI compute layer.
- Ticker
- NVDA
- Layer
- Compute
- Role
- AI GPUs
- Thesis
- Core Holding